One economic indicator that often isn’t taken into account is paying your power bill. In tough times, cash-trapped families often wait to pay their utility bills last.

Dominion Virginia Power says that shutoffs are likely to be up 4 percent this year while the typical yearly average is 3.5 percent. That’s a lot lower than cutoff rates of 22 percent in automobile-sensitive Michigan, according to news accounts.

By coincidence Virginia’s unemployment rate is 4 percent while Michigan’s, the highest in the nation at the moment, is 8.5 percent. In Michigan the automobile industry is suffering its worse sales performance in years while the financial crunch has made it hard to get car loans.

The takeaway: Virginia hasn’t been hit all that hard yet by the looming recession. And that could mean the worst is yet to come.