Thad Williamson

Expect to hear a lot of pieties from high-minded commentators over the next few weeks about the need for Barack Obama and John McCain to select running mates who will make good presidents in their own right.

It's certainly true that selection of a vice-presidential candidate reflects the judgment of the nominee, and will be evaluated accordingly. But let's get serious. There's only one criteria that matters in picking No. 2: whether that running mate can help his or her party win in November.

On the Republican side, I claim no special insight but of the top names that have been discussed Florida governor Charlie Crist seems like the logical pick (not least because that might put Florida out of reach for Obama in the fall, barring a landslide). My college classmate Bobby Jindal from Louisiana is an intriguing possibility as well, but it's less clear how Jindal would broaden McCain's appeal.

As for the Democrats, the conversation has to start with Hillary Clinton. The Clinton campaign did a number of things that irritated the Obama camp intensely during her nomination bid.

In particular, Clinton made a terrible political error with her early mockery of Barack Obama's appeal to hope and a sense of idealism. Liberal politicians have no business attacking or mocking attempts by leaders to lift up aspirations about what this country might become—progressive social change energy is generated, when it is generated, only by raising hopes that change is possible.

But much of that bitterness from a tough campaign melted away after Clinton's eloquent and at times moving concession speech on June 7, a speech that reminded everyone that at the end of the day, Hillary is an important national voice for some of the core aspirations of the Democratic Party.

That doesn't mean she should be the vice-presidential pick, however. Four considerations weigh against selecting Hillary. First, the premise of Obama's campaign is to overturn conventional politics, and not just Hillary but the entire Clinton political machine certainly represents the establishment. Second, it needs to be clear that Obama is the person calling the shots both in his campaign and in a potential administration, and the presence of the Clintons would call that into question. Obama can't afford to have any loose cannons (this means you Bill) on board either his campaign or his administration.

Third, Hillary would bring her high negative ratings with the voters with her, a problem Obama doesn't need. Fourth, Hillary doesn't really help Obama expand his range of appeal or cover his most vulnerable weak spots—experience and credibility on foreign policy.

Obama does need to cut a deal with Hillary to give her a big role in a potential Obama administration (Supreme Court justice?) But he needs to look elsewhere for his running mate.

As it happens, some of the stronger possibilities reside in our neck of the woods—the three musketeers of the Virginia Democratic Party, Mark Warner, Tim Kaine and Jim Webb.

Warner has already ruled himself out, and for good reason: The Democratic Party doesn't need to be giving Senate seats away, and Warner looks like a virtual lock to be elected to Senate in November. No need to risk messing that up.

Tim Kaine is also a plausible choice but he's too much like Obama: not a lot of foreign policy experience, and from the liberal wing of the party on social issues. Kaine likely will also be staying where he is and continuing in his role as co-chair of the Obama campaign.

That leaves Senator Jim Webb. Webb has three big things going for him: First (as with Warner and Kaine), his presence on the ticket would make Virginia a very winnable state for the Obama campaign, and a breakthrough here would make it very tough for McCain to win nationally. Second, Webb can connect with the white working class voters Obama struggled to win over late in primary season, both culturally and in terms of his populist economic outlook.

Third, and most important, Webb brings credibility to Obama's stances on the Iraq War and his overall foreign policy outlook. Webb's recent book "A Time to Fight" makes it clear that his formative experiences were shaped by the military, and his presence on the ticket would make it harder for McCain to try to out-macho Obama and present him as "weak" on Iraq and terrorism.

Even more important, if Obama wins in November, he will need help in winning over military officials and enlisting their cooperation in the strategic re-orientation Obama has in mind. Webb could help greatly in that task, both by making sure that Obama understands the military point of view and in building trust with key military leaders.

Choosing Webb might expose Obama to criticism from the activist anti-war element of his support (Webb criticizes radical protesters of the Vietnam War in his book), and from feminists in light of his opposition in the 1970s to including women in the armed forces. Neither of those objections should be deal-breakers. Progressives concerned about where Webb stands should read "A Time to Fight": In the book, Webb provides (among other things) a good critique of rising economic inequality and insecurity in the United States, but also critiques the "military-industrial complex" and provides a thoughtful discussion of the problems and racial disparities in our criminal justice system.

There may be other risks associated with picking Webb that Obama must weight (how would he fare on the national stage?), but no progressive should oppose his nomination on the grounds he's too conservative, too moderate, or too wishy-washy. The only other national figure Obama could pick who'd bring the same kind of advantages as Webb is Wesley Clark, and unlike Clark, Webb at least has the experience of having run for office successfully.

Obama-Webb would be a powerful Democratic ticket: two fresh voices who were against the Iraq War from the start, who aren't tied to the triangulating Clintonite politics of the 1990s, and with appeal to a very wide base of voters. That's a ticket that would make Republicans both in Virginia and nationally very nervous.

Thad Williamson is an assistant professor of Leadership Studies at the University of Richmond. After growing up in Chapel Hill, N.C., he earned his bachelor's degree at Brown University, a master's degree in theology from Union Theological Seminary (New York) and a doctorate in political science from Harvard University. He is the author of three books and has written on public affairs for numerous national publications.

Norman Leahy

Conventional wisdom says that no one votes for president based upon the vice president.   But the process of choosing a running mate has taken on an almost mythical quality in the last 30 years or so. It's our window into the candidate's thinking…our first taste of what sort of people he will surround himself with should he win the election.

It isn't a perfect guide and quite often has been more cringe-inducing than anything else (Spiro Agnew…Thomas Eagleton…Dan Quayle…Dick Cheney…oh, my).

But as we are now wallowing in the doldrums before the party conventions later this summer, speculating on who will get the nod as VP is just about the only blip of excitement out there right now.  So here's a quick overview of some of John McCain's possible picks…along with my choice.

Mike Huckabee

Pros: Good campaigner, adored by social conservatives.  Populist economic policies appeal to have-nots and afraid to be have-nots. Funny. Former Governor.

Cons: Loathed by economic conservatives.  No foreign policy experience.  Pronounced nanny state tendencies. 

Bobby Jindal

Pros: Young, smart, reformist governor of Louisiana. Darling of the right who is getting raves from just about all factions of the old Reagan coalition.

Cons: Says he doesn't want the job.

Charlie Crist

Pros: Popular governor of electoral vote-rich Florida.

Cons: Economic policies are a mess – his attempts to unload Florida's home insurance costs on the rest of the country have earned brickbats from conservatives everywhere outside of Florida, that is). 

Sarah Palin

Pros: Newly-minted governor of Alaska with a reformist agenda.  Smart, attractive, sensible and conservative…the perfect McCain foil.

Cons: May not want the job.

Carly Fiorina

Pros: Former CEO of Hewlett Packard. Smart, tough, tech savvy. Good on the stump, quick on her feet. Already part of the McCain campaign.

Cons: Forced out at H-P because of poor performance and a shareholder revolt.  No political experience.

Mark Sanford

Pros: Two-term governor of South Carolina. Conservative bordering on libertarian. Very popular with economic conservatives. Helped run McCain's 2000 effort in the state.

Cons: Didn't run McCain's 2008 effort in the state, despite being asked. May not want the job.

Eric Cantor

Pros: Young, aggressive but likeable conservative who has done more than most of his House colleagues to try to right the sinking GOP congressional ship.  Prodigious fundraiser from a safe district.

Cons: Has often said his goal is to be Speaker of the House. May not want the job.

There are many, many other possibilities, of course. But these are the names that tend to keep coming up. Who should he pick and why?

In a perfect world, McCain would pick Mark Sanford. Unlike McCain, Sanford has executive branch experience in addition to his stint in the House of Representatives. Sanford is principled to the point of distraction, which has earned him a national reputation (at least in national conservative circles) as well as a nationwide fundraising base.  For conservatives who shake their heads over the possibility of a McCain presidency, a possible Sanford vice presidency would give them some reason to feel like their interests won't be completely ignored in a McCain White House.

But would Sanford want the job?  That's very hard to say. When he ran for Congress in 1994 (beating an establishment favorite along the way), he ran against Washington – eschewing PAC contributions, taking, and fulfilling, a term limits pledge, turning down earmarks for his district and even going so far as to sleep on a futon in his office.  While these qualities made him a hero to many, and eventually helped propel him to victory in the gubernatorial race over the Democratic incumbent, Sanford has since had a rocky relationship with the state GOP.  He's made some questionable personnel moves, including having his wife act as his de facto chief of staff in Columbia. 

But most of all, he's not interested in Washington – either as a center of power or as a home in which to raise his sons.  

But there are other intriguing choices.  Sarah Palin would be a good pick, and would, even if the campaign failed, establish herself as a national Republican star.  Bobby Jindal would be an exciting pick, even an electric one, because he's not only smart, young and right, he's already a well-tested politician.  But like Palin, he's new to the governor's mansion and may not want to leave the post before he's had an opportunity to make his mark.

And then there's Eric Cantor.

Cantor is not a household name, even in Virginia. As a Republican House member, and a part of the GOP leadership, he could be tarred with his colleagues' excesses in a general election campaign.  He is also untested beyond the confines of Central Virginia.  But within those boundaries, he's proven himself to be a winner.

And in a year when it's popular to believe that Virginia might actually be in play, McCain may feel compelled to spend his vice presidential chip on a Virginian.  If so, Cantor is not only the logical choice, but the best choice.

There are a number of reasons to think why Cantor won't get the nod, not the least of which is his long-professed interest in one day wielding the Speaker's gavel in Congress.

But if asked, and pressed, he might agree to join the ticket. It would be an interesting choice, both for him and for McCain.  And if Cantor's the one, it might also help that most needy of GOP candidates, Jim Gilmore, as he seeks to prevent the coronation of Mark Warner.

So the pick might really be a two-fer: Turn out the conservatives and keep Virginia's electoral votes in the GOP column while giving Jim Gilmore a boost he sorely needs.

Oh, and help win the White House, too. Can't forget that.

Norman Leahy is vice president for public affairs at Tertium Quids, a statewide, free market advocacy organization. He is a contributor to several Virginia political blogs, including Bacon's Rebellion, Sic Semper Tyrannis, Bearing Drift and NBC 12's Decision Virginia. A 2006 graduate of the Sorensen Institute, Norman and his family live in Henrico County.