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Forecast rainfall through Sunday evening, Oct. 20. The 1-inch-plus totals in central and eastern Virginia would be in association with the remnants of Tropical Storm Nestor moving northeastward from the Gulf of Mexico.

The rainy remnants of Tropical Storm Nestor will bring more drought relief to Virginia on Sunday, but clear out in a hurry.

Nestor lost tropical characteristics on Saturday as it came ashore in the Florida Panhandle, but high wind, storm surge, heavy rain and a few tornadoes spread well away from the low-pressure center.

Forecast track

Despite losing tropical storm status, the system will continue to spread a swath of welcome moisture northeastward through drought-stricken areas of Georgia, the Carolinas and Virginia tonight and tomorrow.

The remnant low-pressure center will make its closest approach to Virginia on Sunday afternoon, as it parallels the North Carolina coast and rapidly heads out to sea.

The system will kick up breezy conditions across the region, but inland areas of Virginia will not see sustained tropical storm-force winds.

Small Craft Advisories are posted for most of the Chesapeake Bay and lower James River, while a Gale Warning is in effect for all nearby Atlantic coastal waters.

Based on the track of the storm, any potential for isolated tornadoes to spin-up will be confined to the coastal plain of North Carolina and far southeastern Virginia.

Rainfall

Any rains are going to be beneficial to our area given the drought. It's looking more likely that Richmond will get another steady soaking like we saw on Wednesday, though rain amounts and duration will vary across the state.

Generally, rain chances will be greatest in the southeastern corner of the state, and lower to the north. Most areas south and southeast of Richmond will see at least 1-inch amounts, with the potential for some parts of Southside and Hampton Roads to see up to 3 inches.

For metro Richmond, a high-end scenario could bring us 2 to 2.5 inches, with about 0.5-inch as a bare minimum. The most likely amount is about 1 inch.

The system will exit quickly on Sunday afternoon, which will make flooding issues very unlikely. Poorly-drained and low-lying areas could see standing water, especially with more fall leaves on the ground now.

Timing

The first showers will move in from the south late this evening, with the heaviest and steadiest rain coming late overnight into Sunday morning. The rain will clear out to the northeast during the second half of Sunday, likely between 2 p.m. and 7 p.m.

Otherwise it will be a cool and mostly cloudy Sunday with temperatures hovering in the mid-to-upper 50s.

After a brief lull from high pressure on Monday, another cold front could deliver widespread showers to the state on Tuesday.

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Check Richmond.com/weather for John Boyer’s videos and forecast updates. Contact him at JBoyer@timesdispatch.com.

Meteorologist

John Boyer is the first staff meteorologist for the Richmond Times-Dispatch. He joined the RTD newsroom in November 2016. Boyer earned his degree in meteorology from North Carolina State University in Raleigh.

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