The weather forecast across Virginia this Memorial Day weekend is about as good as you can hope for this time of year: not too hot, not too chilly and not too wet.
But it does fall short in a few areas.
There will be some ongoing river flooding — see below for details — and a lingering potential for isolated flash flooding if thundershowers set up over the mountainous areas that were drenched over the past week.
Thunderstorms will be few and far between, and organized severe weather is not expected.
Clearing skies following the soggy weather could make morning fog an issue for travelers, especially in the western Piedmont and valleys.
The National Weather Service in Wakefield cautions that a moderate-to-high risk of rip currents will continue along Virginia’s coastline through the next few days as winds continue from the northeast.
In case you’ve been turned around by the recent cool weather, Richmond’s average high for this time of year is near 80 degrees, with typical lows in the upper 50s.
Richmond area: Don’t be surprised if you have to dodge a brief shower, but most of the day will be dry and variably cloudy. Plan on warm, humid lower 80s for the afternoon.
Around the state: Watch for morning fog, with a mix of clouds and sun through the day. Scattered showers are most likely across the mountains, though a rain chance can’t be ruled out anywhere. Temperatures will range from the lower- to mid-80s across the Piedmont, with 70s in the mountains and also along the coast.
Richmond area: Likely dry and mostly sunny, with pleasant afternoon readings in the 70s.
Around the state: Hit-or-miss rain chances continue for the western half, while dry and less humid conditions take hold for the east. Highs will range from the lower 80s in the southwest to 70s throughout the Piedmont, and some 60s in Tidewater.
Memorial Day — Monday
Richmond area: Quiet, dry weather continues, with a cooler start in the upper 50s giving way to afternoon 70s.
Around the state: Most areas east of the Blue Ridge Mountains will stay dry and sunny, while slight rain chances persist over the mountains. Temperatures could end up very similar to Sunday, with 80s to the west, 70s for most areas in the middle, and some 60s toward the beaches.
Holiday weekend activities on or near the James River will warrant caution due to flooding.
Levels at Richmond’s Westham gauge will be above the 12-foot minor flooding stage between Friday evening and Sunday evening. The expected peak is 13.8 feet on Saturday evening, slightly higher than the flood on May 2, but slightly lower than the April 14 flood. That’s high enough to cover portions of Huguenot Flatwater. Levels will ebb toward 9 feet by Monday, but that’s still above what’s typical.
Great Shiplock Park will see water above the 8-foot minor flooding stage between Saturday morning and Sunday afternoon. The expected crest there is 9.2 feet on Saturday evening.
Elsewhere in the region, minor-to-moderate flooding along the New, upper James and upper Roanoke rivers will recede on Saturday. Flooding along the Dan River in South Boston and Roanoke River near Randolph is projected to last into Monday.